A decade after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
